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According to Fraga, the December 10 seating of the victors of the June 28election will create a Congress with the power to remove CFKfrom office.
The rulingcouple's considerable political capital dissipated last yearas a consequence of their confrontation with the farm sector. Much of the speculation was fed by thegovernment's most bitter opponents.
Like last year, some of this conjectureis little more than wishful thinking by the government'sopponents, but not all of it.
The ruling couple's politicalweakness, erratic behavior, looming economic challenges, and Argentina's history of truncated presidential terms lead someserious observers to worry about the government's stayingpower.
(A largemajority of analysts do not/not feel that it is the mostlikely scenario.) Those who predict an early exit for the Kirchners tend to stress to varying degrees the followingfactors that, in their view, make a Kirchner collapse morelikely:-- Political: The Kirchners' opponents smell blood after the June 28 election and are waiting for the right moment toremove them, abetted by a public that abhors weak leaders;-- Psychological: The Kirchner psychodrama is contributing toa series of bad decisions that will lead to the firstcouple's political demise; and BUENOS AIR 00000853 002 OF 005-- Economic: The ruling couple's post-election turn to theleft dooms them to botch an increasingly difficult economicsituation, sweeping CFK from office.
Se Kae: Political Arguments and Scenarios-----------------------------------------¶5. (C) There are some influential political analysts(Rosendo Fraga, and with less certainty, Manuel Mora y Araujo) who believe that this country's political volatilitywill cause CFK's fall from power.